Belarus: Cyber upstart, or Russian staging ground?
As the prospect of further Russian aggression in Ukraine looms, the Biden administration is concerned about Russian cyber operations against the U.S. and its allies. Yet as the White House engages with Moscow and builds out plans around these risks, it must watch an overlooked development in Russia’s near-abroad: growing cyber integration between Belarus and the Kremlin. In November 2021, Mandiant published a report assessing with “high confidence” that the UNC1151 cyber group, which assisted the longstanding “Ghostwriter” campaign — stealing government credentials and spreading disinformation in Europe — is linked to the Belarusian government. It also assessed with “moderate confidence” that Belarus “is also likely at least partially responsible for the Ghostwriter campaign.” Significantly, the report’s authors added: “We cannot rule out Russian contributions to either UNC1151 or Ghostwriter.” The report raises the prospect that Belarus is engaged in cyber-enabled influence operations abroad, and the authors explicitly say that Moscow’s […]
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