If you followÂ; ;Cyentia Instituteâ;;;sÂ; ;Jay JacobsÂ; ;via social media you mayÂ; ;FIRSTÂ; ;;-) have learned about the Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) from him, as I did. I quickly learned that FIRST offers an API for theÂ; ;EPSS Model, which immediately piqued my interest. Per FIRST, EPSS provides a fundamentally new capability for efficient, data-driven vulnerability management. While EPSS predicts the probability (threat) of a specific vulnerability being exploited, it can scale to estimate the threat for multiple vulnerabilities on a server, a subnet, mobile device, or at an enterprise level (Jacobs, 2022).
â;;The (EPSS) is a community-driven effort to combine descriptive information about vulnerabilities (CVEs) with evidence of actual exploitation in-the-wild. By collecting and analyzing these data, EPSS seeks to improve vulnerability prioritization by estimating the likelihood that a vulnerability will be exploited. The EPSS model produces a probability score between 0 and 1 (0% and 100%). The higher the score, the greater the probability that a vulnerability will be exploited (in the next 30 days).â;;Â; ;(Jacobs, 2022).
As of February 2022, EPSS version 2 is available; give Jayâ;;;sÂ; ;write-upÂ; ;a good read before proceeding. EPSS v2 is preceded by EPSS v1 andÂ; ;CVSSÂ; ;v3. Note the significant increase in model coverage and efficiency perÂ; ;Figure 1.
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